1st Quarter 2014 Real Estate Market Report

Overall Market: The first quarter of 2014 made a strong bid to keep pace with the overwhelming improvement of the real estate market seen in the first quarter of 2013. The 1st quarter ended with the number of transactions down by about 3% when compared to the first quarter of 2013, a negligible decrease in the larger picture. The primary factor which contributed to this decrease in transactions is the decline in inventory available to buyers, down nearly 25% compared to the first quarter of 2013. This has been a continuous trend in 2014, and it’s been slowing some of the ready, willing and able buyers from purchasing because of this slight inventory. The total dollar volume of sales also experienced a drop, decreasing about 14% over last year’s first quarter. Nonetheless, the median sales price actually increased about 6%, from $675,000 to $716,000. This can be attributed to the dominance of the $500,000 to $1 million dollar sales which accounted for about 35% of the total sales, more than any other single price segment. With inventory levels at historic lows, you can expect 2014 to bring a unique challenge to both buyers and sellers. Buyers will struggle to find quality properties at supportable prices. At the same time, sellers will struggle with the decision of whether or not to sell in 2014 or choose to wait. Many sellers sense the market is improving, and prices will likely rise as the law of supply and demand holds true, as it has demonstrated in many segments of the market.

Single Family Segment: The statistical information for the first quarter of 2014’s single family segment displays some interesting facts about the Jackson Hole real estate market and implores further explanation. The number of transactions decreased approximately 30% when compared to the same time period last year. However, the average sales price remained roughly the same, and the median sales price actually increased about 20%, to $980,000. The vast majority (44%) of the single family home sales occurred in the $500,000 to $1 million price range. Most captivating about this segment of the market is what the future holds. At the time of this report, there were 28 homes for sale in the $500,000 to $1 million price range. Those 28 homes only represent 22% of the available inventory. This means nearly half of all potential single family home buyers must compete for a very small piece of the pie. This supply and demand equation has already showed signs of appreciation, and it should continue as long as this shortage of inventory exists. A precise rate of appreciation varies depending on price range and area of the valley. There were only 3 sales under $500,000 this first quarter, and only 1 single family home is currently for sale under $500,000. While the future is bright for sellers with homes valued under $1 million, the market for homes over $1 million is much more competitive, especially in the over $5 million price range. This price range accounted for only 2 sales this first quarter of 2014, while there are 23 homes over $5 million currently for sale.

Condo & Townhome Segment: The condo and townhome segment of the market had an incredible year in 2013, and the first quarter of 2014 was no different. The number of transactions increased about 26% as well as an impressive 35% increase in total dollar volume. The condo and townhome segment of the market has experienced the most appreciation of any segment. Both average and median sale prices increased, nearly 4% and 16% respectively. The most astonishing statistic is the quarter to quarter comparison of the average sale price in the Town of Jackson where the majority of the condo and townhome sales occur. This segment had an over 30% increase in average sale price. About 50% of the condos and townhomes sold in the first quarter of 2013, sold for less than $500,000. In comparison, about 40% of the sales in the first quarter of 2014 were sold for less than $500,000. Active inventory in the condo and townhome segment is also in short supply, down nearly 20% from the first quarter of last year. With only 82 condos and townhomes currently for sale, there is less than a 6 month supply of inventory.

Vacant Land Segment: In 2013, the vacant land segment of the market showed steady improvement as more and more buyers were unable to find homes to suit their needs in the limited single family home inventory pool, and speculative builders began to purchase land for new projects. The first quarter of 2014 continued this trend of steady growth with a modest increase in the number of transactions, up nearly 5% when compared to the first quarter of 2013. Based on the information available, it is estimated that the total dollar volume decreased slightly, however, due to the large number of sales with undisclosed sales prices, an exact total dollar volume figure is difficult to determine with certainty. Lack of inventory is not yet an issue in the vacant land segment of the market, yet the supply is decreasing, down over 20% compared to the first quarter of 2013. The price range with the least amount of supply is the under $500,000 price range. This lower price range represents just over 15% of the available inventory, yet it contributed to nearly 45% of this first quarter’s sales. All indications point to the vacant land segment continuing on a path of steady improvement.

In Summary: Following a record ski-season and #1 rating for the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort by Ski Magazine and Forbes Magazine, Jackson is experiencing more demand from people from all over the world who are coming to enjoy not only the Jackson lifestyle with countless world-class outdoor and cultural opportunities, but also Wyoming’s tax friendly status. With over 97% of our county protected in national parks, national forests, wildlife refuges and conservation easements, the remaining less than 3% of developable property is highly desirable for residents and second home buyers. With continued constraints on inventory and high levels of demand from buyers, we anticipate continued strong performance in the Jackson real estate market. Considering that Jackson’s lifestyle benefits are matched only by the financial benefits of Wyoming residency and the unparalleled flight access into Jackson Hole, with 12 direct flights, we believe that Jackson offers a “perfect storm” of real estate opportunity, security and access that will continue to appeal to the most discerning buyers.

Christy and Garth Gillespie – The Jackson Hole Real Estate Experts:  We can be reached at 307-413-5243 or by email at garth@jhexperts.com.  The first quarter of 2014 has started off great for us.  We recently move brokerages from Sotheby’s International Realty Jackson Hole to Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates – Christie’s International Real Estate and we could be be happier.  We have been involved 11 transactions so far in 2014.  Call us today to find out why we are successful in this complex market we are seeing in 2014.

Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates exclusively owns and maintains the valley’s oldest and most comprehensive market database. Our report is derived from our proprietary data base (not just mls data) as well as decades of history and success in the region. No other real estate company or agent can offer this depth of expertise or insight regarding current or previous market conditions. The local knowledge of Jackson Hole Real Estate Associates, the largest and most dynamic real estate company in the Teton region, combined with the largest luxury real estate affiliation, Christie’s International Real Estate, offers the ideal balance of local expertise and global reach. The Christie’s International Real Estate network exceeds $100 billion in annual volume, nearly three times greater than our nearest competitor.

 

* The statistics used in this report are from the Teton Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and JHREA’s internal database.
* This report does not go into detail on every segment of the market, but is intended to offer an overview of general market conditions.
*All statistics are supplied by sources that have been deemed reliable but are not guaranteed.
*Average sale price is the total combined dollar volume divided by the number of sales.
*The term “Market Value” means; the value of a property in terms of what it can be sold for on the open market; current value.

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